Dickies 500: Three Races To Go

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If there was a wreck heading into this weekend's race at Texas Motor Speedway, the 2006 Nextel Cup season would have to head to a green-white-checkers finish.

Five drivers now have anyone resembling a shot to win the '06 Cup. The heavy favorites are Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson, who are separated by 26 points atop the standings. Rookie Denny Hamlin is 65 in back of Kenseth, and both Jeff Burton and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Are 84 back. And that's it. The other five Chasers are done.

So if you want to form out who'll win the championship, I guess the best thing to do is look at the final three tracks: Texas, Phoenix and Miami. Here are our five contenders' new and mean finishes at these three tracks:

Kenseth

Texas four-year average: 7.7

Texas 2006: 2nd

Phoenix four-year average: 20

Phoenix 2006: 3rd

Miami three-year mean (since track reconfiguration): 22

Miami 2005: 3rd

Johnson

Texas four-year average: 7

Texas 2006: 11th

Phoenix four-year average: 8.7

Phoenix 2006: 7th

Miami three-year average: 15

Miami 2005: 40th

Hamlin

Texas two-year average: 5.5

Texas 2006: 4th

Phoenix two-year average: 23.5

Phoenix 2006: 34th

Miami one-year average: 30

Miami 2005: 30th

Burton

Texas four-year average: 22.3

Texas 2006: 6th

Phoenix four-year average: 9.7

Phoenix 2006: 9th

Miami three-year average: 25

Miami 2005: 25th

Earnhardt Jr.

Texas four-year average: 12.8

Texas 2006: 12th

Phoenix four-year average: 23

Phoenix 2006: 12th

Miami three-year average: 22

Miami 2005: 19th

Judging by this season's results, it should be Kenseth in a walkover for his second work Nextel Cup series win. But if it comes down to Homestead (which is most surely will), Johnson has had an benefit over just about everybody else at the high-banked unrestricted superspeedways this year. It surely does seem like it'll come down to these two fellas, though Junior loves both Texas and Phoenix, and has logged wins on both. Let's take a look at the first step, this weekend in Texas.

Last Week: Drat. Kasey Kahne was bad early, but was manufacture his way to the front when he suffered a brain cramp that surely put a cramp in my style. His spotter told him that David Stremme was on his face but, according to Kahne, "I forgot." Kahne rammed Stremme, they both were wrecked out of the race, and my straight-up favorite and head-to-head win went to pot. I still had a occasion with Johnson over Tony Stewart, but Smoke was able to hold off J.J. For the week, then, we lost 1.5 units, which puts us at a net clear 19.95 units for the season.

Kasey Kahne (5-1), 1/6th unit. Undeterred, I still proclaim that Kahne is the best 1.5-miler, high-banked-track driver of 2006, and that last week at Atlanta was an anomaly. Yes, the #9 team did struggle to find speed through much of convention and the early parts of the race, but according to Kahne the track was advent to them, which meant as it cooled down, his car tightened up and was enchanting to the front. Then he had his brush with stupidity, and all was lost. Still, I think Kahne deserves to be the race favorite this weekend; he's still got a finishing mean of 8.4 (with four wins) at this track style this year, and he won here with relative ease in the spring.

Jimmie Johnson (6-1), 1/6th unit. Johnson finished second at both Charlotte and Atlanta, which has done wonders for his chances for his first-ever points title, but hasn't brought his backers much joy. Things may not convert this week in Texas, inspecting Johnson has never won at this track. He has, however, posted seven consecutive finishes inside the top 11, and the similarity of this track's configuration to Atlanta's and Charlotte's implies that he's extraordinarily due. It was clear last weekend that Johnson saw no point in pushing it once he had second place locked up, but if Matt Kenseth (8-1) is on his tail this weekend, one wonders if he'll be able to keep himself in check.

Tony Stewart (8-1), 1/6th unit. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. Stewart was the 'loser' side of my head-to-head choice last weekend, and that didn't work out so well, inspecting Smoke won the race. Oops. The fact is, his Atlanta victory wasn't a shock in the task of his work (it was his second win at the lightning-fast Georgia venue), but given that he's face the Chase and his teammate, Denny Hamlin (13-1) is getting most of the attentiveness and resources at Gibbs Racing, it was something of a surprise. What won't be a surprise is to see Stewart take the exact same container with which he won last weekend, and slap it on his car again here at Texas. Clearly, Smoke did a fabulous job adjusting as day turned to night in Atlanta; if he can do the same thing in the warmer Texas air, he's got a occasion to upset the apple cart yet again.

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